Pandemic Flu: The Facts Not Told
This article presents some facts not yet told in public.
How serious a pandemic can be?
Are we now in a real pandemic?
Are there something to get panicked?
This article answers these questions.
If you have any query, please contact:
Dr Selim Khan
selim.khan@waldenu.edu
or khan147@un.org
Pandemic Flu: The Facts Not Told
Dr Selim Khan
MBBS, MPH (Student)
Walden University
May 27, 2009
PUBH-6165-4/Environmental Health
Instructor: Prof. Dr. Raymond Thron
Spring, 2009
At the very beginning of this century the virologists predicted pandemic flu to be a virtual reality within the next few decades (Jocelyn, 2004). The experts of World Health Organization (WHO) believed that the world was very closer to another influenza pandemic which could be greater in intensity than any of the previous ones. Osterholm in his Nieman report (2008) on preparing for pandemic flu, made a call “Wake up: It’s already tomorrow. There will be pandemics in the future.”
Has that time already come? On April 27, 2009, the Emergency Committee of the WHO based on the data collected from the United States of America, Mexico, and Canada confirmed the pandemic outbreaks of swine influenza A/H1N1(from April 30, 2009, WHO was not using the term swine flu to protect the interest of proc meat, Reuters) and upon recommendation of the committee the Director-General of WHO decided to raise the level of influenza pandemic alert from the current phase 3 to phase 4 (WHO, 2009a) and lately on April 29, 2009 to phase 5, the second highest alarm forecasting for a pandemic (AP, Wed April 29, 7:59pm).
What are the pandemic alerts?
There has been much research on this topic of epidemic flu. Upon the scientific evidences gathered so far, WHO has revised its phase description on 2009. Allowing flexibilities in its strategy in incorporating innovative recommendations and initiatives, the WHO has kept in place the system of its six-phased approach to make them more comprehensible, precise, and based upon incidental phenomena. While phases 1–3 concern preparedness in respect to capacity building and designing plan for response, Phases 4–6 more evidently signal the emergencies for action aimed at mitigating the problem directly. Moreover, it extends the times immediately after a first pandemic course in order to easy the recovery endeavors (EPR, 2009).
Phase 1: It is for preparedness, capacity building, and response planning activities. In nature, influenza viruses circulate constantly among animals, especially in birds. Although such viruses might theoretically develop into pandemics among animals, no human being is affected.
Phase 2: An animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.
Phase 3: An animal or human-animal influenza resorting virus is to cause sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but it is not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks and to cause a pandemic.
Phase 4: It is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza resorting virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” Then a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is cannot be avoided.
Phase 5: This phase is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
Phase 6: The pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave.
In the post-pandemic period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required (WHO, 2009b).
Although the move for preparation before the outbreak is definitely a positive aspect, there is no justification of creating panic by imposing restriction on travel, closing borders, and hampering day-to-day businesses. We know from the past 10 pandemics that within short periods of time millions of lives were swept away (the death toll since 1900: Spanish influenza during 1918-1919: U.S. 675,000+, Worldwide 50,000,000+, Asian influenza during 1957-1958: U.S. 69800+, Worldwide 1-2, 000,000, and Hong Kong influenza during 1968-1969: U.S 33,800+, Worldwide 700,000+ Influenza Outbreak, 2007). But now a day, both the members of the public and the authorities are more alert and relatively better equipped than anytime in the past. There remained controversies whether it can happen actually however we may be assured that once it comes to happen, the consequences would not be that much devastating. Though we know that the pandemic is quite different than any other calamities, when it spreads worldwide severity and death toll may rise so dramatically that countries would not always be able to come to the aide of other countries. So, we have to reevaluate our preparedness from time to time. The researchers at Harvard University estimated that about 62 million people worldwide would die if a flu pandemic similar to the one that occurred in 1918 hit today (APHA, 2008).
The Center for Disease Control and prevention (CDC) is working in collaboration with the health officials in the U.S. affected states as well as with the WHO. It is also deploying staffs both in home and abroad to extend scientific directions and technical assistances. Through its Emergency Operations Center CDC is continuously coordinating the agency’s response to this emerging health threat. The Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security declared public health emergency that would facilitates quick release of essential funds for the public health response programs. CDC has set the targets to cut down transmission and magnitude of public suffering, and thus addressing the challenge in collaboration with health care providers, public health officials, the members of the governments and the public, and the mass media (CDC, 2009a).
The raise of pandemic alert on the basis of epidemiological data that delineated human-to-human transmission and ability of community level outbreak of the virus to a higher phase signifies the increase likelihood of spread of ongoing pandemic, but it does not necessarily indicates that a pandemic is inevitable. As per the Director-General of WHO as the virus is ubiquitous and containment is not feasible, the present emphases are focused towards mitigation measures. Borders are not yet closed and no restriction is being imposed on international traveling. Apparently ill people are advised to delay international traveling and people getting sick after any international travel to seek medical help (WHO, 2009a).
However, public health experts from around the world are watching the H1N1 situation very closely. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), through its National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), has been addressing the problem in multiple ways. Over the past year, the U.S. Government supported the training of more than 129,000 animal health workers and 17,000 human health workers in flu surveillance and outbreak response and deployed more than 300,000 personal protective equipment kits to more than 70 countries for use by surveillance workers and outbreak response teams and invested more than $1 billion in the development of new vaccine. Federal and State stockpiles are reported to contain enough antiviral medications to treat nearly 50 million people. In addition, the U.S. Government is developing new antiviral medications to extend their capabilities (The White House, 2009).
Vaccination is a leading health indicator of Healthy People 2010, that’s objective is to vaccinate annually against influenza but there are still significant obstacles, prejudice and disparities in terms of its coverage. Apart from vaccination public awareness through effective communicating is a crucial aspect of pandemic prevention measure. Mass media is playing a major role in public awareness and health education as we saw in SARS outbreak in 2003 that excessive media coverage though created some panic but it caused people to be more informed and staying safe with particular measures. Than a deficient communication strategy among national and international health agencies created confusion and uncertainty within both the media and general public (Influenza Outbreak, 2007) that we think, this time the visible integrated efforts could overcome.
The United Nations experts are working towards find out the validation of the report that pig farms were the source of the outbreak. As per the WHO vaccine production is underway and it may take more 5 to 6 months to come to the open market. Their experts believe that the virus has come from the same strain that causes seasonal outbreaks in humans but is mutated by genetic material from strain that affect pigs and birds (BBC, April 28, 2009).
In an article in Journal of Law, Medicine, & Ethics, Robert Boyle, Childress James, Gravely Steven, Kaplowitz Lisa, Melnick Alan, Rothstein Mark, et al. (2007) highlighted the overwhelming legal and ethical issues that hospitals, health care providers, health departments may encounter in distributing scarce medical resources (medications, hospital beds, ventilators), adjusting standard of medical services, creating “agents of the state” for legal coverage during widespread public health crises. They elucidated the legal and ethical pros and cons of a model in managing medical emergencies in hospital, in maintaining the relationship between hospital administration and health department, in using ethics as a guideline for easing the analysis and mitigation of the demands, prospective, and interests of various stakeholders. In focusing the medical triage during an influenza pandemic they emphasized on the priority setting, medical rationing with a view to implement established ethical obligation and material criterion of justice to treat the similar cases similarly and dissimilar cases dissimilarly. They argued that a medical triage should be sort out as per real need, expected outcomes, and available resources. The target should be to ensure the greatest good for the greatest number of people under crisis.
The latest about pandemic flu
WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases. As of May 22, 2009 there are 34 cumulative cases and 12 death in the year 2009 in comparison to 44 cases and 33 deaths in 2008; 88, 59 in 2007; and 115, 79 in 2006 respectively (WHO, 2009c).
So, from the epidemiological point of view as the current case rate is not more than the expected case rate in comparison to the previous years, we can say that there exists no epidemic at all presently anywhere in the world- this is just the usual seasonal manifestations of naturally circulating influenza virus. Albeit, it’s wise to remain alert to face any inadvertent situation but nothing is foreseeable yet to get panicked.
References
Associated Press (AP). (2009, April 29). WHO warns swine flu threatening to become pandemic. Retrieved April 29, 2009, from http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090429/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu
A.P. (2009, April 30).Mexican health chief: Swine flu leveling off. Retrieved April 30, 2009, from http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090430/ap_on-he_me/med_swine_flu
American Public Health Association. (2008). Get ready campaign. Retrieved April 26, 2009, from / http://www.getreadyforflu.org/newsite.htm
B.B.C. (April 28, 2009). More countries confirm swine flu. Retrieved April 28, 2009, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8022437.stm
Boyle, R., James, C., Steven, G. D., Lisa, K., Alan, M., Mark, R., et al. (2007). Health department, hospitals, and pandemic flu: Overlapping ethical and legal questions, /i/Journal of Law, Medicine, & Ethics/i/. 4(35): 53-54, Suppl. 4. Doi: 10.1111/j.1748-720X.2007.00210.x.
Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (2009a). Swine influenza. Retrieved April 28, 2009, from (Flu).http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/
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Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response. (2009). Current WHO phase of pandemic alert. Retrieved April 28, 2009, from http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html
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Jocelyn, K. (2004). Facing Down Pandemic Flu: the World’s Defenses Are Weak. /i/Science/i/, 306(5695): 354-361
Osterholm, M. (2008). Preparing for pandemic flu. /i/ Nieman Report/Spring 2007/i/. Retrieved April 28, 2009, from http://web.ebscohost.com.ezp.waldenulibrary.org/ehost/pdf?vid=4&hid=16&sid=543b841d-406b-4061-97c1-dbdcecde53cc%40sessionmgr9
Reuters. (2009, April 30). Mexico begins shutting down as flu fears spread. Retrieved April 30, 2009, from http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE53N22820090430
The White House. (2008)./i/Pandemic flu./i/Retrieved November 17, 2008, from http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/pandemicflu/
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World Health Organization. (2009b). Current WHO phase of pandemic alert. Retrieved Amy 27, 2009 from
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html
World Health Organization. (2009c). Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO. Retrieved May 27, 2009, from http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_05_22a/en/index.html
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